The shot of the dollar to six dollars is a sure sign of irreparable collapse 'model' and the advance of political swerve. The 'brains' official underestimate the platform-to-the magnitude of the crisis, arguing that the parallel dollar market represents a small, but do not explain why, if that's the case, do not release the official market or attenuate controls.
The flooding of the foreign exchange market is manifested in the same way, in another market that is not already so contemptible: the trading of government debt securities that pay in dollars, where the price also went to six pesos. Official policy has traces of the "Procrustean bed": instead of adapting the box to the size of the dead, the dead sawed to fit the box. What is still worse, although exporters buying dollars, you can not sell at the same time, the Central Bank in recent days suffered a drop in its stock of reserves, because of the withdrawal of deposits in dollars banks (which totaled 400 million). This is a withdrawal of those dollars economic channels. The escalation of the dollar should cause also a withdrawal of deposits in pesos towards buying foreign currency or other shelters in value, resulting in destabilization of the banking system.
It is clear that the current crisis is the result of the explosion in the imbalances generated by the 'model' official. The economy has lost funding sources. First, of course is the fiscal deficit, which can no longer be covered by funds or Anses enabled the Central Bank by the recent reform of the Charter. You have reached the point that the Central is doing the opposite of what is expected from this reform, because the money supply is contracting issuing to finance the budget deficit for fear of unleashing hyperinflation (it does through titles Central banks that purchase). The result, short-term credit will be expensive and increase the tendency of the recession that has already begun to manifest. Critics of the ruling attributed the deficit to what they call "excess" spending, to prevent account point 15 billion dollars corresponding to the external debt of the state and the even larger set of public debt ( external and internal) and private debt abroad. Another item-some 80 billion pesos-record subsidies to energy and transport, where beneficiaries diverted to other businesses, as just shown in TBA and Metrovías. TBA, depending on the CIPEC, received subsidies of 600 million dollars over the decade, but only spent 50. The import bill for gas and oil products has been caused by energy depletion brought about by the Kirchner over his government.
Brazil, China
President Kirchner added to the collapse of the world listed on Argentina, in a belated reference to the global capitalist bankruptcy. Brazil, the main trade partner of Argentina, has begun a recession since December, according to central bank (O Estado de Sao Paulo, 22/5). Back Brazilian influences the drop in global demand, but, above all, domestic demand, which suffers a bad debt, loans increased consumption. The average household debt in Brazil has reached 25% of revenues. A specialist speaks of "signs of depletion model" and claims that "the level of defaults rose at an alarming rate." Another observer said the reversal operated in the income of short-term capital, which now chooses the exit door. The result has been a devaluation of the Brazilian currency, the real, 30% in a couple of weeks. According to a third economist, "there is a depletion of the credit cycle," "the investment rate fell from 23 to 18%, and this year will grow at a rate below the GDP." He attributes this tendency "to a reduction in the profitability of the economy," can no longer be fueled by "the pattern of consumption-led growth."
The conclusion emerging from this characterization is clear: Brazil aims for an adjustment. A similar development can be done with China, where there is a dramatic decline in the rate of GDP growth so far in 2012-far below the 8% (for some specialists, 3%) attributed to him of lying statistics China. There is a collapse of the import of coal for thermal power plants and copper, there is a strong reduction of electricity consumption and a collapse in real estate investing.
Beyond the reversal of the trends that fueled the growth of exports from Argentina and so-called 'emerging' in general, the "crash" that alludes CFK has to do with what economists call in distorted language, " risk aversion "-that is, withdrawal of capital from any form of productive investment and most speculative investment, with the collapse of the European banking system and the prospect of a collapse of the euro.
Bankruptcy of a social organization
We are in Argentina, on the threshold of an explosion of the economy, the Procrustes method applied to the poor not only accentuates. The crisis opened with Scioli and Macri are directly linked to this final model. While the official charlatans bent on concealing the collapse, the story that many municipalities and some provinces have to resort to quasi-currencies is increasingly likely. This alone is a currency devaluation spectacular.
What ruling and opposition agree to call 'model' is nothing other than the capitalist organization of the country. It is this organization that is in bankruptcy, as yet more evidence that the collapse is international. Those who denounced us before the current crisis as catastrophic should do a review of the adjectives that runs the international press: catastrophe, collapse, bankruptcy, collapse, Armageddon, desperate situation. That is an actual output to the crisis should have a character set and an anti-capitalist content.
The severity of the situation is the union bureaucracy and the currents they thrive on this system out of focus, anesthetizing the labor movement. The joint closed in fictional form, because, in addition to setting wage increases below inflation, ignoring the development of financial collapse. The 'opponents' parade through courts or the City Council to demand judicial independence and access to information, a match that has little to do with claims itself democratic and has the characteristics of a preparatory movement for the possibility of a political collapse. The Liaison Committee has once again put in motion to defeat the proposed land revaluation in the Legislature of Buenos Aires to become a political coup against the clique cristinista. With the economic collapse, getting together the factors that seek to advance a political collapse or channel.
